The French saying: “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose” “The more it changes the more it’s the same thing.” I have always thought this motto applied to the stock market better than anywhere else. Now the really important part of this proverb is the phrase “the more it changes.” The economic world has changed radically and it will change even more. Most people think now that the essential nature of the stock market has been undergoing a corresponding change. But if my cliché is sound – and a cliché’s only excuse, I suppose, is that it is sound – then the stock market will continue to be essentially what it always was in the past – a place where a big bull market is inevitably followed by a big bear market. In other words, a place where today’s free lunches are paid for doubly tomorrow. In the light of experience, I think the present level of the stock market is an extremely dangerous one.
The Group Fallacy in the Theory of Revolution.— I wish now to call your attention to a theory which represents more nearly than the one just discussed a type of the group fallacy common in sociological writing. This is the formula for revolutions developed by Professor Ellwood. At the outset, however, let me state that […]
Emotionally unstable, Mr. market veers from years of euphoria when he can see only the favorable possibilities of industries,companies, and their stocks to profound pessimism when he’s so depressed he can see nothing but trouble ahead. Mr. market persistently teases investors with gimmicks such as surprising earning, starting dividend announcements, sudden surges of inflation, inspiring […]
“If a CFO doesn’t reach out to the investment community, I can just walk. I don’t need to buy every stock. If the business is truly a great one, we will tolerate management inadequacies for awhile. Again, we believe that an average management running an above average franchise will do an above average job. An […]