Work harder. “Work like hell. I mean you just have to put in 80 to 100 hour weeks every week. [This] improves the odds of success. If other people are putting in 40 hour workweeks and you’re putting in 100 hour workweeks, then even if you’re doing the same thing, you know that you will achieve […]
“If a stock is selling at a PE of 50, you have to be right about too many things to consider the principal secure: at a minimum you have to be right about both future earnings and future PE. With a PE of 12, several points below the historic average, you can get away with being […]
“In the real economy we see all the time people being paid for hard work, for perseverance, for insight, and for experience. It is easiest to see this by starting with some extreme cases. There are many great heroes among the great entrepreneurs. It is almost impossible to think of one who got paid for taking risk. The […]
The market only matters when you enter or exit a position — the rest of the time, it should be ignored. If you approach buying stocks like buying a business, you’ll want to hold onto them as long as the fundamentals are strong. During the time you hold an investment, there will be spots where you could […]
“I am a biography nut myself, and I think when you’re trying to teach the great concepts that work, it helps to tie them into the lives and personal ties of the people who developed them. I think that you learn economics better if you make Adam Smith your friend. That sounds funny, making friends […]
At times certain stocks may become correlated and all move in the same direction offsetting the benefits of diversification. Correlations can “go to 1” in difficult market conditions. Things you expect to be uncorrelated may become correlated due to crowding, index implications, money flows, economic factors or geographic events. There is little protection in a bear market […]
History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in market level makes negative historical outcomes salient. In this […]
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More vulnerable to Type I or Type II errors? Type I error, also known as an “error of the first kind” or a “false positive”: the error of rejecting a null hypothesis when it is actually true. It occurs when observing a difference when in truth there is none, thus indicating a test of poor […]
Even longer forecasting power, is called “Orders Received” or “Bookings.” It leads all other series in the business cycle. Why should it not? Order must be booked by the salesman before goods can be made in the factories, or receivables financed by the banks. Naturally, orders move first, business volumes next and interest rates last. […]
